In the realm of fantasy basketball, the keys to constructing a championship-winning squad lie in strategic player selection, a deep understanding of potential performance, and the willingness to take calculated risks. With the NBA season approaching, it's imperative for fantasy basketball managers to evaluate player stats and tendencies to build a formidable team.
The Value of Consistency
A crucial factor in the success of any fantasy team is the consistent production from its top players, especially those chosen beyond the top draft picks. Joel Embiid, projected to average over 60 fantasy points per game, stands out. Last season, he averaged 61 fantasy points per game but managed to play only 39 games. Embiid's recurring absence—never playing more than 68 games in a season—poses a significant risk for managers banking on his elite-level performance.
In sharp contrast, Nikola Jokic exemplifies durability and output, having played 79 games last season. Remarkably, he has never participated in fewer than 69 games throughout his career, making him a reliable cornerstone for any fantasy lineup.
The Case of Aging Legends
LeBron James, turning 40 this season, played 71 games last year after averaging 52 games over the previous three seasons. Despite the inevitable physical toll and age-related decline, "King James" remains a viable option. Notably, fellow Laker Anthony Davis played 76 games last season, yet he has averaged only 44 games over the last three seasons. Davis has played more than 70 games in consecutive seasons just once in his 12-year career, underscoring the delicate balance managers must maintain between his high potential and injury risk.
Young Stars and Inconsistent Appearances
Ja Morant, now 25, missed 73 games last season due to both suspension and injury, yet his averages—26.7 PPG, 7.5 APG, and 5.8 RPG—over the past three seasons highlight his explosive potential. When available, Morant’s impact on the court is undeniable, suggesting he remains a high-reward pick.
Similarly, Kevin Durant, entering his 18th NBA season at age 36, played 75 games last year, proving that even veteran players can provide reliable contributions. Durant's longevity and consistent performance keep him in the upper echelon of fantasy options.
High Performance with Attendance Concerns
Kyrie Irving is another high-impact player whose performance metrics—26.7 PPG, 49.3 FG%, 39.9 3P%, and 91.2 FT% over his last five seasons—are overshadowed by attendance issues, averaging just 44.2 games per season in that span. Despite these challenges, Irving ranked 22nd in fantasy points per game last season, but his overall impact was diluted by ranking 47th in total fantasy points. His sporadic availability is a gamble fantasy managers must weigh carefully.
Zion Williamson shares a similar narrative. With a career average of 26.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG, and 4.0 APG between the 2020-21 and 2022-23 seasons, his potential is tantalizing. Yet, Williamson managed to play just 90 of 236 possible games during this period. After clocking a career-high 70 games last season and a notable 27.1 PPG scoring spree over a late-season 10-game stretch, his trajectory hints at upward momentum, provided he can stay on the court.
The Kawhi Leonard Conundrum
Kawhi Leonard poses a complex dilemma for fantasy managers. Last season, Leonard played 68 games and concluded with the 27th-most fantasy points in the league. However, his persistent knee issues, which caused him to miss 12 of the Clippers' last 14 games including the playoffs, cast a shadow of doubt over his sustained availability and performance. Managers opting for Leonard must do so with a contingency plan in place.
For fantasy basketball enthusiasts, the upcoming season offers a blend of proven veterans and promising stars, each with their unique set of risks and rewards. Strategic player analysis and informed decision-making will be paramount in navigating these complexities and assembling a championship-caliber team.