At Progressive Field, the Minnesota Twins faced a crushing setback, succumbing to the Cleveland Guardians 4-3 after letting slip a three-run lead. The turning point came in the bottom of the eighth inning when Griffin Jax yielded a decisive two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo.
In the midst of a grueling stretch, the Twins have now dropped 18 of their last 27 games. Their grip on the third AL wild-card spot has significantly weakened, with a shrinking lead of just 1 1/2 games. This alarming slump has seen their postseason odds, as assessed by FanGraphs, plummet from 95.4% on September 5 to a more precarious 76.4%.
Offensive Struggles
Offensively, the Twins have struggled to find consistency. In 12 of their recent 27 games, they failed to score more than three runs, a trend underscored by a collective batting average of .236, a .296 on-base percentage, and a .381 slugging percentage during this period. Notably, with the bases empty, the team's hitting rate is a dismal .272, ranking them as the fourth worst in the league.
Rocco Baldelli, reflecting on the team's performance, noted, "If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together."
Pitching Woes
The pitching staff has not been immune to struggles either. The bullpen, which had commendably maintained a 3.84 ERA and was ranked tenth in the league in win probability added (plus-3.41) over their first 123 games, has seen its fortunes decline. Over the recent 27 games, the bullpen's ERA has ballooned to 5.47, with the league's worst minus-2.75 win probability added.
Jax, expressed the collective fatigue and frustration, stating, "It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff."
The rest of the rotation hasn't fared much better, posting a 6.07 ERA in the last 27 games while averaging just 4.38 innings per start. To keep pace in the playoff race, the team will need a turnaround on the mound.
High Stakes and Key Figures
Max Kepler's anticipated return brings a glimmer of hope for the beleaguered Twins. Additionally, a recent acquisition off waivers, lefty Cole Irvin from the Baltimore Orioles, could provide a much-needed boost. Irvin holds a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts and nine relief appearances. Twins President Derek Falvey highlighted Irvin's potential impact, mentioning, "He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help."
Racing Against Time
The Twins are in a bind, having played 17 games in the last 18 days. With the margins shrinking, Pablo López emphasized the immediate need for a focused approach: "Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow."
Despite recent setbacks, the Twins hold crucial tiebreakers against close competitors like the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners, who are just two games behind. The Tigers, however, are on a hot streak, going 23-10 in their last 33 games, adding pressure to the Twins to find their form quickly.
Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have shown glimpses of their capability, combining for 5 hits in 15 at-bats this month, with two doubles and a homer. Their consistent performances will be vital as the Twins attempt to reclaim their dominance and secure their playoff spot.
As Rocco Baldelli succinctly put it, "We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this."