Statements
The Chicago Cubs' bullpen struck again Tuesday night, and not in a good way.
The Cubs took a 2-1 lead into the ninth inning in the first game of a three-game series with the Tampa Bay Rays. However, nominal closer Hector Neris melted down, eventually surrendering a three-run walk-off home run to Brandon Lowe. The final score? Tampa Bay 5, Chicago 2.
Chicago has now lost 13 of its last 18 games. The bullpen's struggles have been a significant factor in this downturn, and the numbers are not pretty. The Cubs' bullpen currently ranks 25th in ERA (4.47), 26th in WHIP (1.37), 22nd in strikeout-to-walk rate (2.23), and 27th in win probability added (-0.66) this season.
Critical Missteps
During this dismal 5-13 stretch, the Cubs have notably lost three games despite leading in the sixth inning or later. Additionally, they lost another game that was tied in the seventh inning. If the bullpen had managed to hold onto these leads, the conversation could be about a frustrating 8-10 stretch instead of a disastrous 5-13 run.
Hector Neris was signed to a one-year deal worth $9 million over the winter, and entered Tuesday's game with a respectable 2.63 ERA. However, his peripheral statistics reveal some concerning trends. Neris had walked 17 batters, nearly as many as he had struck out (22), and various performance estimators indicate there's some smoke and mirrors here: a 4.11 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and a 4.75 xERA (expected ERA).
Neris is 9-for-12 in save opportunities, but the bullpen's overall issues are glaringly apparent.
Offensive Struggles
The offense managed just two runs on Tuesday and has been averaging 3.89 runs per game during this 5-13 stretch. The offense could undoubtedly make life easier for the relievers by scoring more runs, but the reality is harsh: the Cubs feel like they have no margin for error every night.
A Glimmer of Hope
Despite the shaky bullpen, inconsistent offense, and a 5-13 record in the last 18 games, there is a silver lining: the Cubs are only one game out of a wild-card spot. Mediocrity is widespread in the National League, and there’s still plenty of time to turn things around.
Tuesday's loss dropped Chicago to 32-35 on the season, a record identical to the Rays' 32-35. The Cubs' schedule doesn’t get any easier as they continue their series with the Rays, and matchups with several strong teams loom in the coming weeks.
Critical Juncture
The Cubs are at a critical juncture. If Chicago hopes to stay in the wild-card race, improvements need to come quickly in both bullpen performance and offensive output. Fans are growing impatient, and the margin for error is shrinking.
The bullpen's struggles have highlighted a larger issue that extends to the entire team's performance. There is still time for a turnaround, but whether they can seize the moment remains to be seen.
Quotes
"The Chicago Cubs bullpen struck again Tuesday night."
"Nominal closer Hector Neris melted down, eventually surrendering a three-run walk-off home run to Brandon Lowe."
"Chicago has now lost 13 of its last 18 games."